Analysis of Regional Scenarios of New Epidemic Waves of SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus Based on Equations with a Deviating Argument and Damping Functions

The methods we develop within the framework of transient technical process modeling are adaptable to tasks biophysics—both prediction invasions aggressive species and analysis dynamics epidemics. practical application results predict development modern pandemic in 2020 has shown fundamental limitations basic model building. Based on an properties deterministic SIRS model, it not been possible present variety forms that regional coronavirus spread taken. characteristics epidemic do remain constant, as a variable pathogen evolves competitively. phenomena since outbreak COVID-19 have proven be much more complex than naturally fading waves influenza strains immunity accumulates. scenario approach individual situations is promising, taking into account logic evolution adaptation peculiarities its local populations. We performed available data terms oscillation get idea real qualitative diversity wavelike identify some special scenarios described catastrophic cycle breakdown basis known phase-portrait transformations. Applying bifurcation data, were able features oscillatory processes. classified observed outbreaks attenuation infection by correlating epidemics with nonlinear effects. derived for number (in Brazil, New York, Japan) using lagged equations. It comparison specific evolve diversely variably at current stage according internal unpredictable confrontation process, which determined rate change joint virus population immunity, including previously formed T-cell immunity. analyze variants COVID-wave transformations equations distinguishing bifurcation-inducing parameters. substantiated all effects modes, isolated plots, cannot principle obtained single model. Comparative supports hypothesis processes primarily influenced contact density. Vaccination failed complete emergence new infections, but clearly affects regimes disease incidence. Experience 2023 Sweden, Zealand, Japan, South India fundamentally different coping strategies showed sustained blocking transmission could achieved over long term. Our assumed end formation four stable whose sporadic circulation regions controlled CD8+